2021 covid deaths in us8/17/2023 A prediction from among the most respected long-term Covid-19 forecasters in the country found an additional 100,000 people may die between November 2021 and March 2022. What’s more, even if the impacts of Covid-19 are dampened this winter, there still could be a devastating loss of life. “There’s just too many unvaccinated and too many partially vaccinated ” to stop the “aggressive” Delta variant, Hotez said. “I’ve been predicting a pretty bad winter wave again, and it looks like it’s starting to happen,” said Dr Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s hospital’s center for vaccine development. Just 58.6% of the nation is vaccinated, lower than vaccination rates in some European nations now struggling with an increase in Covid-19 cases, such as in Germany and France. Nevertheless, vaccine distribution is highly uneven across the US. “People can still get Covid, there can still be breakthrough infections, but the great news is if you have been vaccinated you are very much less likely to be hospitalized or have severe infection,” said Rupali Limaye, an associate scientist at Johns Hopkins University and an expert in vaccine communication. The vast majority of people who were hospitalized or died from Covid-19 this summer, more than 90% in one CDC study, were not fully vaccinated. Vaccine-conferred immunity against infection may allow cases to rise, he said, but far fewer people will need hospitalization. “Even if cases go up this winter, we’re very unlikely to see the overcrowded and morgues of a year ago,” said Dowdy. However, vaccines remain roughly 85% effective at preventing hospitalization and death. ![]() In the last three weeks, new cases have increased in several cold weather states across New England and the midwest. “I don’t think what we’re seeing in Europe means we’re in for a huge surge of serious illness and death as we here in the US,” last winter. ![]() “I do expect to see cases increasing – we’ve started to see this in the last week or so,” said Dr David Dowdy, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University. Evidence shows vaccine-conferred protection against hospitalization and death remains high several months after inoculation, vaccines for children older than five can reduce Covid transmission, and new antiviral medications hold the promise of making Covid-19 a treatable disease.
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